Sri Lankan victory?

The Sri Lankan leader Mahinda Rajapaksa has declared that his country is now "liberated" from Tamil Tiger rebels after a 26-year war. He's busy telling the world that all is OK, the war is over and victory is established at last. Sounds a bit like George Bush telling the world that the war in Iraq was over.

What we haven't heard much about is what Mr. Rajapaksa thinks he is going to do now with the Tamil minority. Unless he is seeking the oprobrium of the world, he will surely do something about the starving children who were born into the losing side. Then he will try to get some political action into dealing with the Tamil minority's position within Sri Lanka. That is what we would hope he would do. However, aid agencies and UN agencies seem to think the Tamils are in for a hard time. One of discrimination and petty exclusions from mainstream society. A kind of pay-back time.

History tells us that triumphalism over beaten foes does no good, especially if one has to live alongside the beaten party. This particular war also confirms that democracy is a fragile object in this part of the world. When the old Czechoslovakia broke up they had a velvet revolution. Two countries emerged out of the old. In the third world such things do not happen. Woe betide you if you are a minority seeking a homeland through democratic means. It's a non-starter. Thinking about a separatist war? The odds are against you! The Karen are being banged about by the Burmese generals. The Tibetans are being rounded up on spurious charges by Chinese snatch squads. Life is tough being a minority. The worst atrocities are in Darfur currently. It's a gamble indeed for the goal of separate homelands.

In Asia, only the East Timorese successfully fought off the aggression of the majority in the Indonesian-controlled island. Bangladesh fought a civil war with Pakistan but in the end the Islamabad authorities gave in as it was seen that East Pakistan was not really strategically useful.

It will be interesting to see, if it ever came about, how the US Government would view a state trying to secede. They got a touch difficult with the Confederate states en masse. The Civil War resulted. Now there is talk again of states rights. How far does democracy and self-determination stretch in modern America? The Canadians got touchy over Quebec. Russia is holding the Federation together by whatever means. The Basques will probably never be a separate nation. Only Palestinians hold out some hope.

The Tamils may be broken but they are not going to stop being Tamils. This is a classic case of a people being in two places. Not only are the Tamils in Southern India (Tamil Nadu) but they occupy the northern part of Sri Lanka. The Sinhalese may have been the only occupants of the island before the arrival of the Tamils, but that was then and now is now. British India held these peoples together in a kind of framework. 60 years of independence has caused tensions and warfare to break out all over the sub-continent as varying groups settle scores or promote their interests over and above those of others. The Tamils can't be removed. That would be ethnic cleansing. So it all boils down to the fact that both sides will have to live together. The Sinhalese are mainly Buddhists and the Tamils are mainly Hindus. Conflict was not inevitable but not unsurprising either.

Let's hope they can find a way of living in peace with each other.